Evaluation of Febrile Seizure Risk Following Ancestral Monovalent COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination Among U.S. Children Aged 2-5 Years (preprint)

Importance The United States Food and Drug Administration noted a potential safety concern for seizure in children aged 2-5 years receiving the ancestral monovalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccines. Objective To evaluate febrile seizure risk following monovalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccination among children aged 2-5 years. Design, Setting, and Participants The primary analysis evaluated children who had a febrile seizure outcome in the 0-1 days following COVID-19 vaccination. A self-controlled case series analysis was performed in three commercial insurance databases to compare the risk of seizure in the risk interval (0-1 days) to a control interval (8-63 days). Exposure Receipt of dose 1 and/or dose 2 of monovalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccinations. Main Outcomes and Measures The primary outcome was febrile seizure (0-1 day risk interval). Analysis A conditional Poisson regression model was used to compare outcome rates in risk and control intervals and estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Meta-analyses were used to pool results across databases. Results The primary meta-analysis found a statistically significant increased incidence of febrile seizure, in the 0-1 days following mRNA-1273 vaccination compared to the control interval (IRR: 2.52, 95% CI: 1.35 to 4.69, risk difference (RD)/100,000 doses = 3.22 (95%CI -0.31 to 6.75)). For the BNT162b2 vaccination, the IRR was elevated but not statistically significant (IRR: 1.41, 95%CI: 0.48 to 4.11, RD/100,000 doses = -0.25 (95%CI -2.75 to 2.24). Conclusions and Relevance Among children aged 2-5 years, the analysis showed a small elevated incidence rate ratio of febrile seizures in the 0-1 days following the mRNA-1273 vaccination. Based on the current body of scientific evidence, the safety profile of the monovalent mRNA vaccines remains favorable for use in young children.

Safety of Monovalent BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) COVID-19 Vaccines in US Children Aged 6 months to 17 years (preprint)

Importance Active monitoring of health outcomes after COVID-19 vaccination provides early detection of rare outcomes that may not be identified in prelicensure trials. Objective To conduct near-real-time monitoring of health outcomes following COVID-19 vaccination in the United States (US) pediatric population aged 6 months to 17 years. Design We evaluated 21 pre-specified health outcomes; 15 were sequentially tested through near-real-time surveillance, and 6 were monitored descriptively within a cohort of vaccinated children. We tested for increased rate of each outcome following vaccination compared to a historical comparator cohort. Setting This population-based study was conducted under the US Food and Drug Administration public health surveillance mandate using three commercial claims databases. Participants Children aged 6 months to 17 years were included if they received a monovalent COVID-19 vaccine dose before early 2023 and had continuous enrollment in a medical health insurance plan from the start of an outcome-specific clean window to the COVID-19 vaccination dose. Exposure Exposure was defined as receipt of a monovalent BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, or NVX-CoV2373 COVID-19 vaccine dose. The primary analysis evaluated dose 1 and dose 2 combined, and secondary analyses evaluated each dose separately. Follow-up time was censored at death, disenrollment, end of risk window, end of study period, or a subsequent dose administration. Main Outcomes Twenty-one prespecified health outcomes. Results The study included 4,102,016 enrollees aged 6 months to17 years. Thirteen of 15 outcomes sequentially tested did not meet the threshold for a statistical signal. In the primary analysis, myocarditis or pericarditis signals were detected following BNT162b2 vaccine in children aged 12-17 years old and seizures/convulsions signals were detected following vaccination with BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 in children aged 2-4/5 years. However, in a post-hoc sensitivity analysis, the seizures/convulsions signal was sensitive to background rates selection and was not observed when 2022 background rates were selected instead of 2020 rates. Conclusions and Relevance Of the two signaled outcomes, the myocarditis or pericarditis signals are consistent with previously published reports. The new signal detected for seizures/convulsions among younger children should be further investigated in a robust epidemiological study with better confounding adjustment.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccination in Children Aged 5-17 Years in the United States (preprint)

Importance: COVID-19 vaccines are authorized for use in children in the United States; real-world assessment of vaccine effectiveness in children is needed. Objective: To estimate the effectiveness of receiving a complete primary series of monovalent BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) COVID-19 vaccine in US children. Design: A cohort study of children aged 5--17 years vaccinated with BNT162b2 matched with unvaccinated children. Setting: Participants identified in Optum and CVS Health insurance administrative claims databases were linked with Immunization Information System (IIS) COVID-19 vaccination records from 16 US jurisdictions between December 11, 2020, and May 31, 2022 (end date varied by database and IIS). Participants: Vaccinated children were followed from their first BNT162b2 dose and matched to unvaccinated children on calendar date, US county of residence, and demographic and clinical factors. Censoring occurred if vaccinated children failed to receive a timely dose 2 or if unvaccinated children received any dose. Exposure: BNT162b2 vaccinations were identified using IIS vaccination records and insurance claims. Main Outcomes and Measures: Two COVID-19 outcome definitions were evaluated: COVID-19 diagnosis in any medical setting and COVID-19 diagnosis in hospitals/emergency departments (EDs). Propensity score-weighted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated with Cox proportional hazards models, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as 1 minus HR. VE was estimated overall, within age subgroups, and within variant-specific eras. Sensitivity, negative control, and quantitative bias analyses evaluated various potential biases. Results: There were 453,655 eligible vaccinated children one-to-one matched to unvaccinated comparators (mean age 12 years; 50% female). COVID-19 hospitalizations/ED visits were rare in children, regardless of vaccination status (Optum, 41.2 per 10,000 person- years; CVS Health, 44.1 per 10,000 person- years). Overall, vaccination was associated with reduced incidence of any medically diagnosed COVID-19 (meta-analyzed VE = 38% [95% CI, 36%-40%]) and hospital/ED-diagnosed COVID-19 (meta-analyzed VE = 61% [95% CI, 56%-65%]). VE estimates were lowest among children 5--11 years and during the omicron variant era. Conclusions and Relevance: Receipt of a complete BNT162b2 vaccine primary series was associated with overall reduced medically diagnosed COVID-19 and hospital/ED-diagnosed COVID-19 in children; observed VE estimates differed by age group and variant era.

Results of safety monitoring of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) COVID-19 vaccine in U.S. children aged 5-17 years (preprint)

Importance: Active monitoring of health outcomes following COVID-19 vaccination offers early detection of rare outcomes that may not be identified in pre-licensure trials. Objective: To conduct near-real time monitoring of health outcomes following BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in the U.S. pediatric population aged 5-17 years. Design: We conducted rapid cycle analysis of 20 pre-specified health outcomes, 13 of which underwent sequential testing and 7 of which were monitored descriptively within a cohort of vaccinated individuals. We tested for increased risk of each health outcome following vaccination compared to a historical baseline, while adjusting for repeated looks at the data as well as claims processing delay. Setting: This is a population-based study in three large commercial claims databases conducted under the U.S. FDA public health surveillance mandate. Participants: The study included over 3 million enrollees aged 5-17 years with BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination through mid-2022 in three commercial claims databases. We required continuous enrollment in a medical health insurance plan from the start of an outcome-specific clean window to the COVID-19 vaccination. Exposure: Exposure was defined as receipt of a BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine dose. The primary analysis assessed primary series doses together (Dose 1 + Dose 2), and dose-specific secondary analyses were conducted. Follow up time was censored for death, disenrollment, end of risk window, end of study period, or a subsequent vaccine dose. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s): We monitored 20 pre-specified health outcomes. We performed descriptive monitoring for all outcomes and sequential testing for 13 outcomes. Results: Among 13 health outcomes evaluated by sequential testing, 12 did not meet the threshold for a statistical signal in any of the three databases. In our primary analysis, myocarditis/pericarditis signaled following primary series vaccination with BNT162b2 in ages 12-17 years across all three databases. Conclusions and Relevance: Consistent with published literature, our near-real time monitoring identified a signal for only myocarditis/pericarditis following BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccination in children aged 12-17 years. This method is intended for early detection of safety signals. Our results are reassuring of the safety of the vaccine, and the potential benefits of vaccination outweigh the risks.